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Generation Planning is the most important part of the power system and the reliability of the whole power system depends largely on the reliability of power generating system. The generation in the system should be such that it can supply the demand at all times under the outage of normal maintenance and forced outage. To develop generation addition sequence Power System Master Plan of 1995 used PC-based WASP (Weign Automatic System Planning Package). This software determines least-cost generation addition sequences based upon the load characteristics, schedule maintenance, forced outage, and reliability level plant cost etc. The least cost generation addition sequence includes peak and base load plants of optimum unit size. Since then BPDB has been using PC-based WASP for generation planning. Annual LOLP (LOSS-OF LOAD PROBABILITY) of 1% is being used as reliability criteria. The equivalent to about 4 days/year of LOLE (LOSS-OF-LOAD-EXPECTATION).
Demand Forecast :
In the Power System Master Plan(PSMP) of 1995 benchmark load forecast was based on about 8% growth rate. However, due to shortage in generation. capacity, the actual demand could not be supplied for the last few years. The maximum demand served so far is 3782.1 MW(30.10.2005). The electricity development is required to be accelerated to increase access and attain economic development. The desirable economic growth rate would be about 6-7% p.a. Based upon the Reference Forecast the anticipated peak demand would be about 5112 MW in FY2007, 9786 MW in FY2015 and 13,993 MW in 2020. According to PSMP- 2005 year-wise demand forecast is given below.
Peak Demand and Generation Capacity Based on PSMP-2005 Base Forecast
| Year |
Peak Demand (net) |
Net Generation |
Net Generation |
| |
Capacity |
|
| MW |
MW |
GWh |
| 2005 |
4308 |
4458 |
21964 |
| 2006 |
4693 |
4683 |
23945 |
| 2007 |
5112 |
5425 |
26106 |
| 2008 |
5569 |
6002 |
28461 |
| 2009 |
6066 |
7313 |
31028 |
| 2010 |
6608 |
7986 |
33828 |
| 2011 |
7148 |
8586 |
36622 |
| 2012 |
7732 |
9449 |
39647 |
| 2013 |
8364 |
9979 |
42922 |
| 2014 |
9047 |
10879 |
46467 |
| 2015 |
9786 |
11579 |
50306 |
| 2016 |
10,512 |
12479 |
54079 |
| 2017 |
11,291 |
13229 |
58135 |
| 2018 |
12,128 |
14229 |
62496 |
| 2019 |
13,027 |
15243 |
67183 |
| 2020 |
13,993 |
16643 |
72222 |
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